Friday, October 3, 2014

What a week! 10/3/14

Given today’s positive employment numbers (the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%) and a Fed that will stop printing money at the end of October, I expect volatility to continue to increase. I also suspect that most asset markets are not set up for this type of uncertainty: no QE, stronger $, improved US economy, all the other geo-political nuances. As such I will continue to bang on a simple theme that seems to be playing out – again, more volatility on the way. However, some of this volatility is a move to a more traditional levels of market volatility as we move to a more traditional monetary policy debate in the US. In addition, we will be weighing  what parts of the accommodation removal process will come from domestic sources (rates) vs international sources (currencies). This, I am confident, will be the next 6 months gear for movement in the markets.

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